// CONFIDENTIAL // FOR INTERNAL USE //
NAMEGOOD INTELLIGENCE NG-1987-02-15-BS1985
INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Steve Jobs
NeXT, Inc. ยท Chairman & CEO ยท Office of the Chairman
SubjectSteve Jobs
AffiliationNeXT, Inc.
PositionChairman & CEO ยท Office of the Chairman
Date Issued1987๋…„ 2์›” 15์ผ
AnalystNameGood Sample Analyst
DistributionANALYST ONLY
Source ReliabilityB (USUALLY RELIABLE)
BLUF โ€” BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
KEY JUDGMENTS
CRITICAL SIGNALS
ANALYSIS

๋ถ„์„ ๊ฐœ์š”

Steve Jobs (๋‹น์‹œ 30์„ธ, 1955โ€“2011) โ€” Apple Computer ๊ณต๋™ ์ฐฝ์—…์ž์—์„œ 1985๋…„ 9์›” ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ ํˆฌ์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ•์ถœ ์งํ›„ NeXT ๋ฅผ ์„ค๋ฆฝ. ๋ณธ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์‹œ์ ์€ NeXT ์ฐฝ์—… ์งํ›„, Ross Perot ์˜ $20M ํˆฌ์ž (1987) ์œ ์น˜ ์ง์ „ ๋‹จ๊ณ„.

๋‹น์‹œ NeXT ๋Š” *๊ต์œก์šฉ ์›Œํฌ์Šคํ…Œ์ด์…˜* ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ํ‘œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ๋ณธ ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€์˜ ํŒ๋‹จ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ ๋น„์ „์ด *post-Apple ์˜ ์ •์ฒด์„ฑ ํšŒ๋ณต* ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์› ์Œ.

๐Ÿ“ฐ ์ตœ์‹  ๋™ํ–ฅ & ๋‰ด์Šค (1985โ€“1987 ์‹œ์  ์žฌ๊ตฌ์„ฑ)

๋‚ ์งœ์ฃผ์š” ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์ถœ์ฒ˜
1985.09Apple ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ Macintosh ์‚ฌ์—…๋ถ€ ํ•ด์ž„. Apple ์ฃผ์‹ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋งค๊ฐ ํ›„ NeXT ์„ค๋ฆฝTime, 1985.09.30
1985.10Apple ์ง์› 5๋ช… (Bud Tribble, George Crow ๋“ฑ) ๋™๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ง โ†’ Apple ์†Œ์†กNewsweek
1986.02Pixar ์ธ์ˆ˜ ($5M, Lucasfilm Computer Division). Apple ๋งค๊ฐ ์ž๊ธˆ ์ผ๋ถ€ ํ™œ์šฉNYT
1986.06NeXT ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์‹œ๋“œ $7M (Jobs ๋ณธ์ธ ์ž๊ธˆ) ์†Œ์ง„ ๊ฐ€์†. ์™ธ๋ถ€ ์ž๊ธˆ ๋ชจ์ƒ‰InfoWorld
1987.02Ross Perot $20M ํˆฌ์ž ๊ฒฐ์ • (๊ธฐ์—… ๊ฐ€์น˜ $126M)WSJ

๐Ÿ’ก ์ธ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ: ์ด ์‹œ์  Steve Jobs ๋Š” *๊ณต์‹์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์›Œํฌ์Šคํ…Œ์ด์…˜ ์ฐฝ์—…๊ฐ€* ์˜€์œผ๋‚˜, *์‹ค์ œ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ํŒจํ„ด* ์€ ๋ช…๋ฐฑํžˆ "Apple ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณต๊ท€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” *์šฐํšŒ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ*" ๋ฅผ ํ–ฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Œ. 1996๋…„ NeXT โ†’ Apple ์ธ์ˆ˜ ํก์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 12๋…„ ํ›„ ์‹ค์ œ ์ด๋ค„์ง โ€” ์ด ์‹œ์ ์— *์ด๋ฏธ ๊ทธ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ์˜ ๋จธ๋ฆฟ์†์— ์žˆ์—ˆ์„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ* ้ซ˜.

๐Ÿ‘ค ์ธ๋ฌผ ์‹ฌ์ธต ํ”„๋กœํŒŒ์ผ

ํ•ญ๋ชฉ๋ถ„์„
์—ฐ๋ นยท์„ธ๋Œ€30์„ธ (1955๋…„์ƒ). ๋ฒ ์ด๋น„๋ถ ํ›„๊ธฐ + Whole Earth Catalog ์นด์šดํ„ฐ์ปฌ์ฒ˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ.
์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒํ•œ์ ˆ๋Œ€์  โ€” ์ž๊ธฐ์ž๊ธˆ $7M ๋‹จ๋… ์ถœ์ž. ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ ์—†์Œ. ์ง์› 5๋ช… ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ณธ์ธ ์ถฉ์„ฑ ๋ผ์ธ.
์กฐ์ง ๋‚ด ์œ„์น˜Founder + CEO + Chairman = ๊ฑฐ๋ฒ„๋„Œ์Šค ์™„๋ฒฝ ์žฅ์•…. *๊ถŒํ•œ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ* ๊ฐœ๋… ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์—†์Œ.
DISC ์œ ํ˜•Dํ˜• ๊ทน๋‹จ์น˜ + Iํ˜• ๋ณด์กฐ. ๋น„์ „ communicate ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…, ํ˜‘์กฐ์„ฑ โ˜….
์ „๋ฌธ์„ฑ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ž ์•„๋‹Œ *ํ๋ ˆ์ดํ„ฐ/ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ž*. ๋ณธ์ธ ์ฝ”๋”ฉ X, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ธํ„ฐํŽ˜์ด์Šคยท์žฌ๋ฃŒยทํƒ€์ดํฌ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”ผยท์‚ฐ์—… ๋””์ž์ธ ๋ชจ๋“  layer ์˜ *์‹ฌ๋ฏธ์  ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์ž*.

๐Ÿ”ฎ ์ˆจ๊ฒจ์ง„ ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„

๐Ÿข ์กฐ์ง ์ธํ…”๋ฆฌ์ „์Šค

ํ•ญ๋ชฉ๋‚ด์šฉ
ํšŒ์‚ฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์ง์› ~50๋ช… (1987 ๊ธฐ์ค€). Apple ์ถ”์ข… ์ธ๋ ฅ ์œ„์ฃผ.
์—…์ข…๊ต์œก์šฉ ์›Œํฌ์Šคํ…Œ์ด์…˜ ($6,500 ๋‹จ๊ฐ€). ์‹ค์ œ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ง„์ž…์€ 1988๋…„ (NeXT Cube).
์ฃผ์š” ๊ณ ๊ฐ (๋ชฉํ‘œ)๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต (Stanford, MIT, CMU). ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ๊ธฐ์—… X (์˜๋„์ ).
์ž๊ธˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌJobs ์ž๊ธฐ์ž๊ธˆ $7M (1985) โ†’ ์™ธ๋ถ€ ์ž๊ธˆ ๋ชจ์ƒ‰ ์ค‘ (๋ณธ ์‹œ์ ).

โš ๏ธ ์กฐ์ง paingpoint ์ถ”์ •:

๐Ÿ•ธ๏ธ ์ธ๋งฅ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ

๐Ÿ”ฎ *Latent ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„*: Apple ์ถœ์‹  5์ธ์˜ *์žฌํ•ฉ๋ฅ˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ* โ€” 1996 ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์‹œ 4๋ช… Apple ๋ณต๊ท€. ์ฆ‰ ๋ณธ ์‹œ์  ์ด๋ฏธ *long-term Apple ํšŒ๊ท€์˜ ์ธ์  ์ž์‚ฐ* ํ™•๋ณด ์™„๋ฃŒ ์ƒํƒœ.

๐Ÿ“ ์œ„์น˜ ๋ถ„์„

900 Chesapeake Drive, Redwood City, CA โ€” 1985 ๋‹น์‹œ *vacant industrial park*. ์ž„๋Œ€๋ฃŒ ํ‰๋ฐฉํ”ผํŠธ๋‹น ~$1.20/yr (1985๋…„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ). ํ›„์ผ Pixar ๊ฐ€ 1986๋…„ ์ธ์ ‘ ๋ถ€์ง€ ๋งค์ž…. ์ฆ‰ NeXT + Pixar ์˜ *๋™์ผ ์ง€๋ฆฌ์  hub* ๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์—ฐ์ด ์•„๋‹Œ ์˜๋„.

๐ŸŽฏ ์‚ฌ์—… ๊ธฐํšŒ ๋ถ„์„ (๊ฐ€์ƒ์˜ VC ๊ด€์ , 1987 ์ง„์ž… ๊ฐ€์ •)

๐Ÿ“Š ๋น„์ฆˆ๋‹ˆ์Šค ๊ธฐํšŒ ์Šค์ฝ”์–ด: โญโญโญโญโญโญโญโญ (8/10)

ํ‰๊ฐ€์ ์ˆ˜๊ทผ๊ฑฐ
์ง์ ‘ ๋งค์ถœ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ6์›Œํฌ์Šคํ…Œ์ด์…˜ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ž์ฒด๋Š” niche, but ํ–ฅํ›„ OS ๋ผ์ด์„ ์‹ฑ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ
๊ฒŒ์ดํŠธํ‚คํผ ๊ฐ€์น˜10Jobs 1์ธ = ํ–ฅํ›„ Apple ๋ณต๊ท€ ์‹œ Apple ์ „์ฒด ecosystem ๊ฒŒ์ดํŠธํ‚คํผํ™”
์—…๊ณ„ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ10technology + design ๋‘ ์˜์—ญ ๋™์‹œ ์ตœ๊ณ  ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ. Pixar ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™•์žฅ.
์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ „๋žต ๊ฐ€์น˜101996 NeXT ์ธ์ˆ˜, 2001 iPod, 2007 iPhone ์˜ *seed ๋‹จ๊ณ„*

๐Ÿ’ก VC ํ–‰๋™ ๊ถŒ๊ณ : Ross Perot ์˜ $20M @ $126M valuation ์€ *ํ˜„์žฌ(1987) ์‹œ์  ์ ์ •*. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ *์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ฐ€์น˜* ๋Š” 1996 Apple ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์  $429M (NeXT ๊ฐ€์น˜) โ†’ 2026๋…„ ์‹œ์  Apple ์‹œ์ด $3T ์˜ *๊ฐ„์ ‘ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๋„* ๊ณ„์‚ฐ ์‹œ ROI ๋ฌดํ•œ๋Œ€. early entry ์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ dominant.

โš ๏ธ ์ €ํ•ญ์  + ๊ทน๋ณต:

๐Ÿค ํ˜‘์ƒ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค

๋‹จ๊ธฐ (~3๊ฐœ์›”): ์ž๊ธˆ ํˆฌ์ž X, *NeXT ์›Œํฌ์Šคํ…Œ์ด์…˜ 1๋Œ€ ์‹œ๋ฒ” ๋„์ž…* (๋Œ€ํ•™ยท์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ ๋ณด์œ  VC). Jobs ์˜ ์ž์กด์‹ฌ ์ž๊ทน X ๋ฐฉ์‹ entry.

์ค‘๊ธฐ (~12๊ฐœ์›”): Pixar ์™€์˜ *๊ต์ฐจ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ* ์ œ์•ˆ โ€” ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”ฝ ์›Œํฌ์Šคํ…Œ์ด์…˜ + ์• ๋‹ˆ๋ฉ”์ด์…˜ IP ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ. 1989-1991 ์‹œ์  Pixar ์˜ RenderMan ์ถœ์‹œ ์‹œ์ ์— ์–‘ ์‚ฌ ์‹œ๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฐœํ˜„.

์žฅ๊ธฐ (>24๊ฐœ์›”): Apple ๊ณผ์˜ *์žฌ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ* ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค sponsoring. 1996 ์‹ค์ œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚จ.

๐Ÿ“ˆ ํ–‰๋™ ์˜ˆ์ธก

์ด์ง ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ: โญ (0/10) โ€” ๋ณธ ์‹œ์  *founder lock-in ์ตœ๋Œ€์น˜*. Apple ์œผ๋กœ ์ž๋ฐœ์  ๋ณต๊ท€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ (12๋…„ ํ›„ ์‹คํ˜„).

์˜ˆ์ธก ํ–‰๋™:

1. NeXT Cube ์ถœ์‹œ ์‹œ์  (1988) ์ดํ›„ *์‹œ์žฅ ๋ฐ˜์‘ ๋ฏธ์˜จ* ์ธ์ง€ ํ›„ *๊ต์œก โ†’ ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ๊ธฐ์—…* pivot (1990 ์‹œ๋„).

2. 1993 hardware ์‚ฌ์—… ํฌ๊ธฐ โ†’ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด (NeXTSTEP OS) ๋‹จ๋… ํ™” (์‹ค์ œ ์‹คํ–‰๋จ).

3. 1996 Apple ์ธ์ˆ˜ (์‹ค์ œ ์‹คํ–‰๋จ, $429M, ํก์ˆ˜).

๐Ÿ”ฎ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ์ : 1996 ์‹œ์  *Apple ์˜ OS ์œ„๊ธฐ* ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ trigger. VC ์˜ ์ถ”์  ๋Œ€์ƒ.

โฐ ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ ๋ถ„์„

๐Ÿ“… 1987 ์‹œ์  ๊ถŒ์žฅ ์ ‘๊ทผ timing:

โš ๏ธ ํšŒํ”ผ ์‹œ์ : NeXT Cube ์ถœ์‹œ ์ง์ „ 6๊ฐœ์›”. Jobs ๊ฐ€ *๋ชจ๋“  ์™ธ๋ถ€ ๋…ธ์ด์ฆˆ ์ฐจ๋‹จ* ๋ชจ๋“œ ์ง„์ž….

๐Ÿ“ž ์ ‘๊ทผ ์ „๋žต

์ตœ์  ์ฑ„๋„: ์ง์ ‘ letter (์ด๋ฉ”์ผ X, ์ „ํ™” X). Jobs ๋ณธ์ธ ์žํ•„ ๋‹ต์‹  ๋ฐ›์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ letter ๊ฐ€ 100ร—.

์ฒซ ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€ draft (1987 ๊ฐ€์ƒ):

Dear Mr. Jobs,

>

I am writing not to offer capital, but to share an observation: the gap between the NeXT vision and the workstation market's TAM concerns me only because it suggests the *real* product is not the Cube, but the operating system you will inevitably extract from it.

>

If that thesis interests you, I would value 30 minutes of your time โ€” in Redwood City, on your schedule.

>

Respectfully,
[Analyst]

๋Œ€ํ™” ์˜คํ”„๋„ˆ:

1. "Pixar ์˜ RenderMan ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ILM ์˜ ์˜์กด์„ ๋Š์–ด๋‚ผ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค โ€” ๊ทธ ์‹œ์ ์— NeXT ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š”์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."

2. "Apple ์˜ system software ๊ฐ€ 1990๋…„๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜์— ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฉด, ์–ด๋А OS ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ฑ„์šฐ๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?"

3. (์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๊ธˆ์ง€) "Apple ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€์‹ค ์ƒ๊ฐ ์žˆ์œผ์„ธ์š”?" โ€” ์ฆ‰์‹œ ์ข…๋ฃŒ.

๐Ÿšซ ์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๊ธˆ์ง€:

๐Ÿ” ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋ฐœ์ „ ๋กœ๋“œ๋งต

๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์•ก์…˜
1-4์ฃผ์ง์ ‘ letter 1ํ†ต. ๋‹ต์‹  ์‹œ 1์ฐจ ๋ฏธํŒ… (Redwood City).
1-3๊ฐœ์›”1๋Œ€ Cube ์›Œํฌ์Šคํ…Œ์ด์…˜ ์‹œ๋ฒ” ๊ตฌ๋งค ($6,500). ์‚ฌ์šฉ ํ›„๊ธฐ ์žํ•„ letter.
6-12๊ฐœ์›”Pixar-NeXT ์‹œ๋„ˆ์ง€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ 1ํŽธ ๊ณต๋™ ๋ฐœ๊ฐ„.
1-3๋…„NeXT ์ถ”๊ฐ€ funding round ์ฐธ์—ฌ (1989 Canon $100M deal ๋™์ฐธ).
5-10๋…„Apple ๋ณต๊ท€ ์‹œ์  advisor ๊ฒฉ ์ž๋ฌธ. 1997 iCEO ์‹œ์  ์™ธ๋ถ€ thinking partner.

๊ฒฐ๋ก  โ€” Analyst Note

๋ณธ ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€์˜ ํŒ๋‹จ์œผ๋กœ๋Š”, Steve Jobs (1987 ์‹œ์ ) ๋Š” *๋‹จ์ผ deal* ์ฐจ์›์ด ์•„๋‹Œ *ํ–ฅํ›„ 25๋…„์˜ technology landscape ๊ฒฐ์ •์ž* ์ž„. ๋ณธ ์‹œ์  ์™ธ๋ถ€ ์ž๋ณธ์˜ entry ๋Š” *์ˆœ์ˆ˜ ROI ๊ณ„์‚ฐ* ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์ •๋‹นํ™” ์–ด๋ ค์›€ โ€” ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ *์ „๋žต์  ๊ฒŒ์ดํŠธํ‚คํผ ๊ฐ€์น˜* ์ฐจ์›์—์„œ๋Š” ๋น„๊ต ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์šฐ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„.

๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์€ *๋„ˆ๋ฌด ์ผ์ฐ ๋– ๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ* ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ *๋ถ€์ ์ ˆํ•œ timing ์œผ๋กœ entry ํ•œ ํ›„ ๊ทธ์˜ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋ฅผ ์˜๊ตฌ ์†์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ*. Ross Perot ๋ชจ๋ธ (strategic + ์ž๊ธˆ + ์ •์น˜์  ์ž์‚ฐ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ) ๋งŒ์ด ์œ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ close ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ angle.

APPENDIX B โ€” METHODOLOGY
๋ณธ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋Š” ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด (OSINT) ์˜ ์ž๋™ ์ง‘๊ณ„ ๋ฐ ์–ธ์–ด๋ชจ๋ธ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ถ”๋ก ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์„ฑ๋จ. ๋‹จ์ผ ์ธ๋ฌผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ *ํŒ๋‹จ ์ž๋ฃŒ* ์ด๋ฉฐ ์ตœ์ข… ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์€ ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€ ์ฑ…์ž„. ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„ ๋“ฑ๊ธ‰: A (CONFIRMED) ยท B (USUALLY RELIABLE) ยท C (UNCONFIRMED) ยท F (UNRELIABLE).
๋ณธ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋Š” ๊ณต๊ฐœ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋งŒ ์‚ฌ์šฉ. ๋น„๊ณต๊ฐœ ํ†ต์‹ ยท์œ„์น˜ ์ถ”์ ยท์ธ๋งฅ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„ ์นจ์ž… ์—†์Œ. NameGood ZDR (Zero Data Retention) ์ •์ฑ….